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Prediction for CME (2024-04-11T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-11T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30007/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is unclear due to the CME's faintness. The candidate source is a filament eruption centered around N20E10, with liftoff starting around 2024-04-11T05:48Z in SDO AIA 304. The filament can be seen deflecting to the east. The eruption is also best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. STEREO A EUV 195/304 also observes the eruption. ARRIVAL: characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2024-04-15T17:27Z to 10nT at 19:22Z. A subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~330 km/s at 17:27Z to 390 km/s at 18:14Z. This was accompanied by a slight increase in density as well. A possible flux rope arrival appeared around 2024-04-16T09:30Z for which a stronger amplification of magnetic field components was observed, with Btotal increasing to 13nT at 13:03Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-15T17:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-14T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Issued: 2024 Apr 12 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40412
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Apr 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
...
Coronal mass ejections: A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the south- east limb was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 around 06:30 UTC on April 11th. It is probably associated with the filament eruption near the central meridian reported on April 11th. A possible glancing blow may be expected late on April 14th.
...

Lead Time: 77.05 hour(s)
Difference: 22.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-04-12T12:24Z

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